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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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