Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
