Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
